Why Are Groceries So Expensive? 2025 Trends and Predictions

Nope, it’s not just you. Groceries really are more expensive in 2025.

From $8 egg cartons to sticker shock in the produce aisle, food prices have continued creeping up long after the worst of pandemic-era inflation. But why? And will things ever go back to “normal”?

Here’s what’s driving grocery costs in 2025 and what you can do to keep your food budget under control, even when essentials are anything but affordable.

Table of Contents

1. Why are grocery prices still rising?
2. How the price of eggs became a symbol of food inflation
3. What’s driving higher food costs in 2025?
4. Will grocery prices go down?
5. How to manage rising grocery costs without going broke
6. FAQ

Why are grocery prices still rising in 2025?

After years of inflation, you’d think grocery bills would start going back to normal. And technically, some prices are dropping. But overall, they’re still higher than what most of us were paying before the pandemic.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, grocery prices (food-at-home) rose 2% from April 2024 to April 2025. That’s lower than the 10%+ spikes we saw back in 2022. But it’s still an increase—and it’s layered on top of years of previous hikes.

For example, even though fruits and vegetables are down 3.1% from last year, that doesn’t undo the price hikes from 2022 or 2023. Meanwhile, the meat, poultry, fish, and eggs category as a whole (+5.9%) and nonalcoholic beverages (+5.8%) are still trending upward. (Although you’ll see in a second just how much eggs alone have skyrocketed in 2025 so far.)

In plain terms? Some things are getting a little cheaper, but not the stuff you probably hoped for. Meat, eggs, and drinks are still going up, and even categories that look cheaper compared to last year are often still more expensive than they were pre-2020.

For families trying to stick to a budget, even small increases like these can feel like a step backward, especially after years of already-adjusted grocery routines.

How the price of eggs became a symbol of food inflation

If there’s one grocery item that captures just how unpredictable food prices have become, it’s eggs. And in early 2025, they spiked again thanks to another outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). 

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports that more than 169 million birds have been affected since 2022. This resulted in a sharp drop in supply, pushing prices back up. 

BLS data shows that egg prices rose 49.3% over the last 12 months (from April 2024 to April 2025). 

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview, the average retail price for a dozen large eggs is as follows: 

• Conventional eggs: $3.30
• USDA organic free-range eggs: $6.49
• USDA organic pasture-raised eggs: $9.69 

This roller coaster shows how a single disruption, like a bird flu outbreak, can ripple through the entire food system. And because eggs are a staple in everything from breakfasts to baked goods, the impact doesn’t stop at the dairy aisle.

What’s driving higher food costs in 2025?

Grocery prices are being squeezed from all sides: climate change, supply chain snags, labor shortages, and even corporate strategy. Here’s a breakdown of the biggest culprits.

Global supply chain and climate disruptions

It’s becoming more challenging to grow and transport food worldwide, and climate change is a major reason.

According to a 2025 Stanford study, rising global temperatures have already reduced yields of major crops like corn and wheat by more than 15% in some regions. At the same time, extreme weather (like droughts, floods, and heat waves) is damaging farms and disrupting global food exports.

And let’s not forget the cost of getting food to your store. Higher shipping prices, fuel volatility, and geopolitical tensions (like tariffs or export bans) could keep supply chains stretched thin. One storm, strike, or port backlog can throw off entire categories of groceries for weeks.

Labor shortages and higher wages

The food industry is still struggling to fully restaff after pandemic disruptions. If any food manufacturers, distributors, or retailers have raised wages to fill open roles (a positive for workers), that cost can often trickle down to shoppers. 

Fewer hands on deck also means slower production and distribution, which can push prices higher when supply doesn’t meet demand.

Corporate pricing strategies and shrinkflation

Here’s the kicker: Some prices are still high simply because companies haven’t lowered them.

After years of “blame inflation” messaging, many brands have kept food prices elevated, even after their costs improved. Some have even leaned into shrinkflation, where the product size quietly shrinks but the price stays the same (or goes up).

If your cereal box or snack bag feels lighter, it probably is. A recent survey found that 75% of consumers have noticed shrinkflation at the grocery store. It’s a subtle way companies protect their profits, but it still hits your grocery budget.

Ongoing economic instability

Finally, there’s the broader economic backdrop.

With continued uncertainty around interest rates, trade policy, and even concerns about a potential U.S. dollar decline, essentials like food often feel the pressure first. That’s partly because demand for basics doesn’t go away, so even slight shifts can send prices into a slow climb.

Will grocery prices go down, or is this the new normal?

Here’s the honest answer: Maybe, but probably not to pre-2020 levels.

According to the USDA’s April 2025 Food Price Outlook, grocery prices are expected to rise more slowly this year. Food-at-home prices (aka what you buy at the store) are predicted to increase 3.2% in 2025, compared to a 1.2% rise in 2024 and an 11.4% jump in 2022.

So yes, the worst may be behind us for now. But that doesn’t mean your grocery bill will shrink. It just means prices are rising at a pace that feels less extreme.

Some items are expected to climb faster than others. The USDA predicts:

• Eggs: +54.6% 
• Beef and veal: +6.3% 
• Nonalcoholic beverages: +4.2% 
• Sugar and sweets: +4.6% 
• Meanwhile, fresh vegetables could actually fall -2.5%

Of course, forecasts can shift with weather events, policy changes, or new supply chain hiccups. And even if inflation levels out, the prices we’ve gotten used to may stick around. 

That $3.99 loaf of bread might not go back to $2.29 because companies, supply chains, and consumers have all adjusted to this new normal.

How to manage rising grocery costs without going broke

You can’t control avian flu, climate change, or corporate pricing. But you can take small steps to soften the blow on your grocery bill.

Here’s how to stay steady when the essentials keep climbing:

• Shop local and seasonal. Farmers’ markets and regional produce could cost less than out-of-season items shipped across the country. Plus, it will likely be fresher and support your community.
• Plan meals and cut food waste. The average family of four throws away $1,500 worth of food each year, according to the USDA. Planning your meals (even loosely) could help you avoid impulse buys and use what you already have. Try building meals around what’s on sale or nearing expiration.
• Use food-saving apps. Tools like Flashfood and Checkout 51 can help you score discounts on near-expiration items or earn cash back on everyday groceries.
• Bridge the gap with budgeting tools. When things get tight between paychecks, apps like EarnIn offer small cash advances that can help cover gas or groceries without racking up overdraft fees. Just make sure it’s a temporary bridge, not a long-term crutch.

And if you’re feeling overwhelmed by how fast your spending adds up, it might help to take a step back and revisit the bigger picture. Building financial stability (even slowly) can make it easier to ride out moments like this. Here’s a reminder of why money is important in the first place.

FAQ

Why do store-brand groceries also cost more now?

While still cheaper than name brands, store-brand groceries have become more expensive due to the same pressures affecting national brands. These products often rely on the same raw materials, packaging suppliers, and transportation networks.

As costs for labor, fuel, and materials rise, so do prices, regardless of brand. Some retailers have also improved the quality of their store-brand lines, which can justify slightly higher pricing while still offering savings.

Is it better to buy in bulk in 2025?

Buying in bulk can still save money in 2025, especially on nonperishable or frequently used items like rice, pasta, and household supplies.

However, it’s not always the best move if you’re short on storage space or need to prioritize cash flow. Bulk purchases of perishables can also lead to waste if you don’t use them in time. It remains a smart strategy, but only when aligned with your usage habits and budget.